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	<title>Helian Unbound &#187; Revolution</title>
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	<description>The world as I see it</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 09 May 2012 02:08:57 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>A European Liberal Interprets the French Election</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2012/05/07/der-spiegel/a-european-liberal-interprets-the-french-election/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2012/05/07/der-spiegel/a-european-liberal-interprets-the-french-election/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 May 2012 23:29:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Der Spiegel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ideology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Socialism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=3014</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jakob Augstein is the quintessential European version of what would be referred to in the US as a latte Liberal.  Heir to what one surmises was a significant fortune from his adopted father, the Amerika-hating founder of Der Spiegel magazine, Rudolf Augstein, he nevertheless imagines himself the champion of the poor and downtrodden.  His writing is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jakob Augstein is the quintessential European version of what would be referred to in the US as a latte Liberal.  Heir to what one surmises was a significant fortune from his adopted father, the Amerika-hating founder of <em>Der Spiegel</em> magazine, Rudolf Augstein, he nevertheless imagines himself the champion of the poor and downtrodden.  His writing is certainly not original, but he is at least a good specimen of the type for anyone interested in European ideological trends.  <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/wahlsieg-von-hollande-europa-vor-neuem-sozialdemokratischen-zeitalter-a-831756.html">His reaction </a>to the recent election in France is a good example.</p>
<p>As those who occasionally read a European headline are aware, that election resulted in the victory of socialist Francois Hollande over his austerity-promoting opponent, Nicolas Sarkozy.  While certainly noteworthy, such transitions are hardly unprecedented.  No matter, the ideological good guys won as far as Augstein is concerned.  He greets Hollande&#8217;s seemingly unremarkable victory with peals of the Marseillaise and Liberty leading the people:</p>
<blockquote><p>It is not just a piece of political folklore that France is the land of the revolution.  No other European country has such a lively tradition of protest.  <em>La lutte permanente</em>, the constant struggle, is part and parcel of the French civilization.  In France, the centralized state historically formed an alliance with the people against feudalism.  Now the time has come for that to happen again.  The fact that the French picked this particular time to vote a socialist into the Elysee Palace is no coincidence.  A revolutionary signal will now go forth from France to all of Europe.  The new feudal lords who must be resisted are the banks.</p></blockquote>
<p>Great shades of 1789!  Break out Madame Guillotine.  What can account for such an outburst of revolutionary zeal in response to what is ostensibly just another garden variety shift from the right to the left in European politics?  It is, of course, &#8220;austerity,&#8221; the course of belt-tightening prescribed by Sarkozy and his pal, Germany&#8217;s Chancellor Angela Merkel, for Greece and some of the other more profligate spendthrifts in the European Union.  Has austerity worked?  Augstein&#8217;s answer is an unqualified &#8220;No.&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8230;Can one overcome a recession by saving?  The answer is:  No.  those who save during a recession deepen the recession.</p></blockquote>
<p>I personally rather doubt that anyone knows whether austerity &#8220;works&#8221; in a recession or not.  Modern economies are too complex to simplistically attribute their success or failure to one such overriding factor and, in any case, serious austerity measures haven&#8217;t been in effect long enough to allow a confident judgment one way or the other.  Certainly the opposites of austerity, such as the recent &#8220;stimulus&#8221; experiment in the US, haven&#8217;t been unqualified successes either, and have the disadvantage of leaving the states that try them mired in debt.</p>
<p>No matter, Augstein goes on to teach us some of the other &#8220;lessons&#8221; we should learn from the events in France.  It turns out that some of these apply to Augsteins&#8217;s own country, Germany.  The German taxpayers have forked over large sums to keep the economies of Greece and some of the other weak sisters in Europe afloat.  Germany&#8217;s robust economy has served as an engine to pull the rest of Europe along.  German&#8217;s should be patting themselves on the back for their European spirit, no?</p>
<p>Not according to Augstein!  As he tells it, what Germans should really be doing is hanging their heads in shame.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Germans are poster boys of the market economy.  Never have interest rates been more favorable for Germany.  It&#8217;s a gift of the market at the expense of the rest of Europe.  She (Merkel) isn&#8217;t concerned about the European political legacy of Adenauer and Kohl.  Those are such western ideas, that mean little to the woman from the east.  Driven by cheap money from the international finance markets, the German export industry has scuttled European integration &#8211; and Merkel lets them get away with it.</p></blockquote>
<p>Ah, yes, the socialists of the world have no country.  We&#8217;ve heard it all before, haven&#8217;t we?  If you&#8217;re successful, you must be evil.  The proper response is guilt.  Poor Germans!  They just can&#8217;t ever seem to catch a break.  Somehow they always end up in the role of villain.</p>
<p>According to Augstein, without the support of France, Germany and her &#8220;saving politics&#8221; are now isolated in Europe.  What&#8217;s that supposed to mean?  That Germans are now supposed to fork over even greater funds, this time with no strings attached in the name of &#8220;European integration?&#8221;  If I were a German taxpayer, I know what my response would be:  &#8220;Let the other Europeans spend and spend to their heart&#8217;s content, just as long as they don&#8217;t reach into my pocket to do it.&#8221;</p>
<p>Well, we&#8217;ll just have to wait and see how this flight back to socialism turns out.  Who am I to say?  I&#8217;m no economist.  There&#8217;s an election in Germany next year.  If the socialists return to power there as well, things might really get interesting.  We&#8217;ll finally find out just how European socialists plan to go about ending austerity after they&#8217;ve run out of other people&#8217;s money to spend.</p>
<p><a href="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Liberty-leading-the-people.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-3016" title="Liberty leading the people" src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Liberty-leading-the-people.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="393" /></a></p>
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		<title>N. N. Sukhanov and the Poverty of (Marxist) Philosophy</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2012/04/07/religion/n-n-sukhanov-and-the-poverty-of-marxist-philosophy/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2012/04/07/religion/n-n-sukhanov-and-the-poverty-of-marxist-philosophy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Apr 2012 23:19:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Communism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Human nature]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ideology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russian revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Secular Religions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Socialism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=2862</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The memoirs of N. N. Sukhanov are probably the best eyewitness account of the Russian Revolution, or, more accurately, revolutions.  The Bolshevik Revolution in October 1917 (old style) was preceded by the revolution that actually overthrew the czarist regime in February of that year.  Sukhanov not only lived through and described it all, but, as [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The<a href="http://www.questia.com/library/book/the-russian-revolution-1917-a-personal-record-by-n-n-sukhanov-joel-carmichael.jsp"> memoirs</a> of N. N. Sukhanov are probably the best eyewitness account of the Russian Revolution, or, more accurately, revolutions.  The Bolshevik Revolution in October 1917 (old style) was preceded by the revolution that actually overthrew the czarist regime in February of that year.  Sukhanov not only lived through and described it all, but, as a member of the Executive Committee of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg_Soviet">St. Petersburg Soviet</a>, he played a significant role in the unfolding events.  He had a knack for turning up at key moments, such as the arrival of Lenin after his ride through Germany on the famous &#8220;sealed train,&#8221; the debut of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leon_Trotsky">Trotsky</a> as a speaker before the Soviet, and in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolny">Smolny</a> headquarters of the Bolsheviks on the very day they launched their revolution.  He was well known to Lenin and Trotsky, on friendly terms with such other Bolshevik luminaries as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamenev">Kamenev</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunacharsky">Lunacharsky</a>, and occasionally slept at the home of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Kerensky">Kerensky</a>.  More importantly as far as the subject of this post is concerned, he was a convinced left wing socialist of the type <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Hoffer">Eric Hoffer</a> described in &#8220;The True Believer,&#8221; a religious zealot of the greatest secular religion the world has ever known.</p>
<p>In describing his own actions and thoughts during all these dramatic events, Sukhanov gives us an excellent close-up of the type.  Like most convinced Marxists, he suffered from the delusion that the religious dogmas he devoted so much of his time to studying and pondering were really a &#8220;science.&#8221;  By virtue of the &#8220;truth&#8221; this &#8220;science&#8221; revealed to him, he had become cocksure that he was superior to those who didn&#8217;t share his faith, possessed of an all-encompassing knowledge that was hidden from them.  The unbelievers became, in his eyes, at best, ignorant &#8221;philistines&#8221; and, at worst, willing minions of that great outgroup of the Marxists, the bourgeoisie.  A revealing instance of this attitude is his description of the conversation of two female co-workers in the czarist Ministry of Agriculture, where he held a job in spite of his illegal status (he had been banished from the city for revolutionary activities) in the days immediately preceding the February revolution:</p>
<blockquote><p>I was sitting in my office in the Turkestan section.  Behind a partition two typists were gossiping about food difficulties, rows in the shopping queues, unrest among the women, an attempt to smash into some warehouse.  &#8220;D&#8217;you know,&#8221; suddenly declared one of these young ladies, &#8220;if you ask me, it&#8217;s the beginning of the revolution!&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>&#8230;in those days, sitting over my irrigations systems and aqueducts, over my articles and pamphlets, my <em>Letopis </em>(a periodical edited by Maxim Gorky, ed.) manuscripts and proofs, I kept thinking and brooding about the inevitable revolution that was whirling down on us at full speed. These <em>philistine girls</em> whose tongues and typewriters were rattling away behind the partition didn&#8217;t know what a revolution was.</p></blockquote>
<p>As far as Sukhanov was concerned, the Russia of his day was inhabited mainly by such philistines, people who, by virtue of their ignorance of the true faith, were merely an inert mass, incapable of playing an active role in the revolutionary upheavals to come.  Among them were the great &#8220;grey masses&#8221; of the soldiery, suspect because of their peasant origins, and relegated to the &#8220;petty bourgeoisie,&#8221; that great Marxist catchall for &#8220;others&#8221; who didn&#8217;t happen to actually possess any of the &#8220;social means of production.&#8221;</p>
<p>The great exception was, of course, the proletariat.  As a true believer in the Marxist religion, Sukhanov ascribed all kinds of wonderful and fantastic qualities to the demigods of that religion, the workers.  They appeared to him as the beloved to her lover, paragons of every good quality.  For example, in describing the scene at a meeting of the Second Congress of Soviets on the eave of the October Revolution he wrote,</p>
<blockquote><p>It was not until 11 o&#8217;clock that bells began to ring for the meeting.  The hall was already full, still with the same grey mob from the heart of the country.  An enormous difference leaped to the eye:  the Petersburg Soviet, that is, its Workers&#8217; Section in particular, which consisted of average Petersburg proletarians in comparison with the masses of the Second Congress looked like the Roman Senate that the ancient Carthaginians took for an assembly of gods.</p></blockquote>
<p>This deification of the proletariat was a reflection of the socialist true believer&#8217;s inability to see the rest of humanity as other than Marxist classes.  All motives, all political goals, all human aspirations, must necessarily be forced into the Procrustean bed of some class interest.  Thus, workers who opposed the Bolsheviks were transmogrified into &#8220;petty bourgeoisie,&#8221; and noblemen from wealthy families like Lenin were magically transformed into the vanguard of the working masses.  So it was that Hitler&#8217;s Nazi regime and fascism in general were simply hand-waved away as &#8220;the final stage of capitalism.&#8221;  Understanding human nature and the non-economic motivations it might inspire was never Communism&#8217;s strong suit.  In fact, the ideology required denial of the very existence of human nature.  Creatures with hard-wired behavioral predispositions could not be quickly &#8220;re-educated&#8221; to become the New Soviet Men and Women ideally suited for the worker&#8217;s paradise that was being prepared for them.  In the end, of course, human nature had the last word.  As E. O. Wilson famously put it, &#8220;Great theory, wrong species.&#8221;</p>
<p>Sukhanov suffered from another delusion common to the socialist faithful &#8211; the notion that mass organizations were spontaneous emanations of the masses themselves, called forth by historical developments.  This particular fantasy was probably the most devastating of all the delusions engendered by Marxist ideology.  It paralyzed any resistance to the Bolshevik coup d&#8217;etat from intelligent people who should have known better.  On the contrary, many of them fought resistance by others, reasoning that, even if they didn&#8217;t agree with the Bolsheviks themselves, the party was an authentic manifestation of the popular will, instead of a tiny minority that happened to be highly effective at manipulating the popular will.  Thus, to become the vanguard of the &#8221;expression of the popular will,&#8221; it was only necessary for the Bolsheviks, far superior to any potential opponent in the field in their grasp of mass psychology, to ply a highly volatile population with propaganda slogans that pandered to the mood of the moment, regardless of whether they knew them to be false themselves or not.  They did so with a virtuosity that has seldom been equalled, their task facilitated by Kerensky&#8217;s ineffectual provisional government.  As Sukhanov put it, &#8220;Agitation and the influence of ideas were an incomparably more reliable prop of Smolny (e.g., the Bolsheviks) than military operations.&#8221;  In the end, far from being the source of a revolutionary upheaval that they had been during the February revolution, the masses became mere willing tools for the tiny minority who actually did make the revolution.  Meanwhile, the more &#8220;advanced&#8221; socialists of other parties stood idly by, convinced that the Bolshevik coup was &#8220;theoretically&#8221; wrong, but represented the will of the masses, nevertheless.</p>
<p>So it was that Sukhanov, even though he opposed what the Bolsheviks were doing, not only failed to act against them himself, but denounced those who did try to act as &#8220;counter-revolutionaries.&#8221;  His mind muddled by the dogmas of a new religion he took for &#8220;science,&#8221; he was incapable of perceiving the Bolsheviks as anything but the true representatives of the &#8220;democracy!&#8221;  He suffered from this delusion to the point that he seriously believed his party could have formed a &#8220;united front&#8221; with this &#8220;democracy,&#8221; and even considered his failure to do so his &#8220;greatest crime.&#8221;  After the Mensheviks and other left socialists, led by the left Menshevik <a href="&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Martov&quot;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;">Julius Martov</a>, had decided to walk out of the Second Congress of Soviets which the Bolsheviks controlled and used as the legal facade for their coup, thus abandoning the &#8220;democracy,&#8221; he wrote,</p>
<blockquote><p>So the thing was done.  We had left, not knowing where or why, after breaking with the Soviet, getting ourselves mixed up with counter-revolutionary elements, discrediting and debasing ourselves in the eyes of the masses, and ruining the entire future of our organization and our principles.  And that was the least of it:  in leaving we completely untied the Bolsheviks&#8217; hands, making them masters of the entire situation and yielding to them the whole arena of the revolution.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>A struggle at the Congress for a united democratic front <em>might</em> have had some success. For the Bolsheviks as such, for Lenin and Trotsky, it was more odious than the possible Committees of Public Safety or another <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavr_Kornilov">Kornilov</a> march on Petersburg.  The exit of the &#8220;pure in heart&#8221; freed the Bolsheviks from this danger.  By quitting the Congress and leaving the Bolsheviks with only the Left SR (Socialist Revolutionary) youngsters and the feeble little <em>Novaya Zhizn </em>(paper edited by Gorky, ed.) group, we gave the Bolsheviks with our own hands a monopoly of the Soviet, of the masses, and of the revolution.  By our own irrational decision we ensured the victory of Lenin&#8217;s whole &#8220;line.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>I personally committed not a few blunders and errors in the revolution.  But I consider my greatest and most indelible crime the fact that I failed to break with the Martov group immediately after our fraction voted to leave, and didn&#8217;t stay on at the Congress.  To this day I have not ceased regretting this October 25th crime of mine.</p></blockquote>
<p>All this, of course, was a complete chimera.  Once the Bolsheviks had consolidated power, they had not the least intention of sharing it with anyone.  The idea that walking out on the Bolshevik &#8220;democracy&#8221; had &#8220;freed their hands&#8221; was the purest fantasy.</p>
<p>The socialist religion was the great hope of the 19th century, and the great disaster of the 20th. In the end it demonstrated once again, as the spiritual religions that preceded it had done many times before, that belief in things that are false can lead to very unpleasant results including, as we have seen only too frequently of late, self-destruction in the hope of an illusory paradise to come. So it was with Sukhanov and the other Bolshevik fellow travelers as well. Sukhanov was lucky. He was merely arrested and disappeared into the Gulag, where he apparently survived longer than most. In general, Stalin was in the habit of shooting these &#8220;intellectuals&#8221; who had done so much to facilitate his rise to power.</p>
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		<title>George Orwell and Socialism</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2011/11/08/russian-revolution/george-orwell-and-socialism/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2011/11/08/russian-revolution/george-orwell-and-socialism/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Nov 2011 03:16:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Communism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ideology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russian revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Socialism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=2642</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With Animal Farm, an allegorical tale of the Russian Revolution, and 1984, a fictional analysis of the totalitarian state, George Orwell may well have done more to smash Marxist ideology than any other writer before or since.  He is considered by many the great nemesis of socialism.  As it happens, he was a convinced socialist himself.  [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With<em> Animal Farm</em>, an allegorical tale of the Russian Revolution, and<em> 1984</em>, a fictional analysis of the totalitarian state, <a href="http://www.george-orwell.org/">George Orwell</a> may well have done more to smash Marxist ideology than any other writer before or since.  He is considered by many the great nemesis of socialism.  As it happens, he was a convinced socialist himself.  Anyone doubting the fact need only read <em>Homage to Catalonia</em>, a memoir of his service in the Spanish Civil War.  If he ever felt any sympathy for the Stalinist variant of the totalitarian state, that experience cured him of it.  Not so his dedication to the socialist idea.  Orwell was, in fact, a revolutionary socialist.  For example, during World War II he wrote,</p>
<blockquote><p>The difference between Socialism and capitalism is not primarily a difference of technique. One cannot simply change from one system to the other as one might install a new piece of machinery in a factory, and then carry on as before, with the same people in positions of control. Obviously there is also needed a complete shift of power. New blood, new men, new ideas &#8211; in the true sense of the word, a revolution.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>(Writing in 1940) The English revolution started several years ago, and it began to gather momentum when the troops came back from Dunkirk. Like all else in England, it happens in a sleepy, unwilling way, but it is happening. The war has speeded it up, but it has also increased, and desperately, the necessity for speed. &#8230;since a classless, ownerless society is generally spoken of as &#8220;Socialism&#8221;, we can give that name to the society towards which we are now moving. The war and the revolution are inseparable. We cannot establish anything that a western nation would regard as Socialism without defeating Hitler; on the other hand we cannot defeat Hitler while we remain economically and socially in the nineteenth century. The past is fighting the future and we have two years, a year, possibly only a few months, to see to it that the future wins.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>We cannot win the war without introducing Socialism, nor establish Socialism without winning the war. &#8230;The fact that we are at war has turned Socialism from a textbook word into a realizable policy. The inefficiency of private capitalism has been proved all over Europe. Its injustice has been proved in the East End of London. &#8230;If it can be made clear that defeating Hitler means wiping out class privilege, the great mass of middling people, &#8230;will probably be on our side.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>From the moment that all productive goods have been declared the property of the State, the common people will feel, as they cannot feel now, that the State is <em>themselves</em>.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>One can predict the future in the form of an &#8220;either-or&#8221;:  either we introduce Socialism, or we lose the war.  (Published November, 1942)</p></blockquote>
<p>and so on.  One can find much more in the same vein in Orwell&#8217;s writings. In retrospect, it all seems a bit delusional, but Orwell was no fool. He was a surpassingly brilliant man, with a deep respect for the truth. He was no ideologue, and his analyses of the great events happening around him were often remarkably accurate and profound. If anything, his example should teach us humility. If one of the greatest thinkers our species has ever produced could have been so wide of the mark in his predictions of things to come, it might behoove us to be somewhat reticent about attempting the same thing ourselves. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory">Black swans</a> have a habit of turning up at embarrassing times.</p>
<p>For that matter, Orwell was hardly an anomaly in the first half of the twentieth century.  A great number of intellectuals accepted it almost as a commonplace that socialism in some form was not only desirable, but inevitable.  Many agreed with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxim_Gorky">Maxim Gorky&#8217;s</a> conclusion that democracy and socialism were inseparable.  One could not exist without the other.  The hard times of the 1930&#8242;s seemed to sweep away any lingering doubts that the capitalist system was at the end of its tether.  The stampede to socialism was hardly just a European phenomenon.  Anyone doubting that thinkers in the United States were just as susceptible to the collective delusion need only visit the stacks of a university library and look through the pages of such intellectual and political journals as the <em>Nation</em>, <em>The New Republic</em>, and the <em>American Mercury</em> for the year 1934.  Orwell was merely one of many who saw the &#8220;obvious&#8221;:  the demise of capitalism was coming sooner rather than later.  The only question left was how to manage the transition to socialism as elegantly as possible.</p>
<p>Looking back with 20/20 hindsight, we now know that capitalism was rather more tenacious than Orwell and the rest suspected.  However, we would do well not to become too complacent.  Technological developments like the Internet greatly enhance our access to all kinds of information, but they also tend to reinforce groupthink on both the left and the right with a power that is exponentially greater than the pamphlets and journals of the 1930&#8242;s.  Our own collective delusions about the future of mankind will likely seem even more quaint half a century hence.</p>
<p>Orwell&#8217;s classless society may have been the stuff of dreams, but several regimes have come and gone since his death that came close to realizing the nightmare world of <em>1984</em>.  As we shall see, he was remarkably prescient about a good number of other things as well.</p>
<p><a href="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Orwell.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2646" title="Orwell" src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Orwell.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="333" /></a></p>
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		<title>1848 in the Middle East</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2011/02/18/world-politics/1848-in-the-middle-east/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2011/02/18/world-politics/1848-in-the-middle-east/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Feb 2011 14:08:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Foreign affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ideology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=2558</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ever since the fall of Louis Philippe&#8217;s July Monarchy set off a round of sympathetic insurrections in Europe, revolutions have tended to appear in waves.  The recent uprisings in the Middle East are no exception.  The reaction to them among liberals and conservatives will be familiar to anyone who experienced the cold war.  In those days, conservatives tended to support &#8220;anti-Communist&#8221; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ever since the fall of Louis Philippe&#8217;s July Monarchy set off a round of sympathetic insurrections in Europe, revolutions have tended to appear in waves.  The recent uprisings in the Middle East are no exception.  The reaction to them among liberals and conservatives will be familiar to anyone who experienced the cold war.  In those days, conservatives tended to support &#8220;anti-Communist&#8221; dictators against popular uprisings, and liberals tended to support the &#8220;democratic movements&#8221; against these &#8220;corrupt dictators,&#8221; even if their leaders happened to be Pol Pot or Ho chi Minh.  Now, thanks to the Internet and other modern means of spreading the word, the related narratives on the left and right are similar, but more uniform, pervasive, and predictable than ever. </p>
<p>In the case of Egypt, for example, conservatives seldom write anything concerning recent events there without raising the specter of the Muslim Brotherhood.  Liberals, on the other hand, are cheering on the insurgency, scoffing at the suggestion that it could ever be hijacked by Islamist radicals.  For the most part, the proponents of the two narratives possess little or no reliable information on the balance of political forces in Egypt, and certainly not enough to support the level of certainty with which they represent their points of view.  As with earlier revolutions, the notion that even the best informed human beings are sufficiently intelligent to reliably predict the eventual outcome is merely another one of our pleasant delusions. </p>
<p>In fact, the belief of the vast majority of those on either side of the issue that the point of view they support with such zeal was arrived at independently via the exercise of their own intellectual powers is also a delusion.  The utter sameness of these &#8220;independent opinions,&#8221; as like to each other as so many peas in a pod, and their almost inevitable association with an assortment of other &#8220;independent opinions&#8221; of like nature, demonstrate their real character as ideological shibboleths that define the current intellectual territory of the in-groups of the left and the right. </p>
<p>What, then, of Egypt?  Who can say?  The political history of the Middle East, the rarity and evanescence of democratic governments in the region, the traditional role of the military as a quasi-political party holding all the trump cards, and the lack of experience in or ideological attachment to popular government do not encourage optimism that a modern democratic government will emerge from the current chaos.  Still, as noted above, none of us has the intellectual horsepower to predict with certainty what will happen, although of all the guesses being made, some of them will surely be lucky.  One can only suggest to the Egyptian people that, given the outcome of some of the other &#8220;popular movements&#8221; that were greeted with similar euphoria during the past century, it would behoove them to be very careful whom they allow to lead them.</p>
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		<title>The &#8220;Reconciliation&#8221; of Stalin and Trotsky</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2010/08/21/history/the-reconciliation-of-stalin-and-trotsky/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2010/08/21/history/the-reconciliation-of-stalin-and-trotsky/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Aug 2010 15:32:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Communism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russian revolution]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=1896</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Trotsky was perhaps the brightest, and certainly the most readable, of the old Bolsheviks. However, unlike Bukharin and several other former comrades, he has never been formally rehabilitated, perhaps because he was never tried, but simply murdered at the behest of Stalin. According to an article that just appeared in The Moscow News, at least [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.trotsky.net/">Trotsky</a> was perhaps the brightest, and certainly the most readable, of the old Bolsheviks. However, unlike <a href="http://art-bin.com/art/obukharin.html">Bukharin</a> and several other former comrades, he has never been formally rehabilitated, perhaps because he was never tried, but simply murdered at the behest of Stalin. According to <a href="http://www.mn.ru/news/20100820/187994246.html">an article</a> that just appeared in <a href="http://www.mn.ru/">The Moscow News</a>, at least a part of the Russian left is now considering a &#8220;reconciliation&#8221; between the two. It quotes Darya Mitina, one of the leaders of the Russian Communist Youth and a former State Duma deputy to the effect that,</p>
<blockquote><p>It is my dream to once see a memorial in a quiet part of Moscow, depicting Trotsky and Stalin sitting across from each other.</p></blockquote>
<p>That would certainly justify a famous remark by Karl Marx,</p>
<blockquote><p>History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.</p></blockquote>
<p>The proponents of such a &#8220;rehabilitation&#8221; would do well to actually read Trotsky, starting, perhaps, with &#8220;<a href="http://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/1937/ssf/">The Stalin School of Falsification</a>.&#8221; Sometimes he could be remarkably prophetic. Here’s what he had to say about the historical fate of Communism in “In Defense of Marxism,” a collection of his letters and articles published shortly after he was murdered by Stalin in 1940.</p>
<blockquote><p>If, however, it is conceded that the present war (WWII) will provoke not revolution but a decline of the proletariat, then there remains another alternative: the further decay of monopoly capitalism, its further fusion with the state and the replacement of democracy wherever it still remained by a totalitarian regime. The inability of the proletariat to take into its hands the leadership of society could actually lead under these conditions to the growth of a new exploiting class from the Bonapartist fascist bureaucracy. This would be, according to all indications, a regime of decline, signalizing the eclipse of civilisation.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Then it would be necessary in retrospect to establish that in its fundamental traits the present USSR was the precursor of a new exploiting regime on an international scale.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>If (this) prognosis proves to be correct, then, of course, the bureaucracy will become a new exploiting class. However onerous this perspective may be, if the world proletariat should actually prove incapable of fulfilling the mission placed upon it by the course of development, nothing else would remain except only to recognize that the socialist program, based on the internal contradictions of capitalist society, ended as a Utopia.</p></blockquote>
<p>&#8220;Ended in a Utopia&#8221; could be said of many revolutions, and Stalin was not unique.  Revolutionary euphoria is a perfect vehicle to power for unscrupulous leaders who care more about personal aggrandizement than noble ideals.  You say you want a revolution?  Be careful who you pick to lead it.</p>
<p><a href="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/trotsky.jpg"><img src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/trotsky.jpg" alt="" title="trotsky" width="309" height="397" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-1897" /></a></p>
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		<title>Ben Franklin on Nationalized Health Care</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2010/03/21/worldview/ben-franklin-on-nationalized-health-care/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2010/03/21/worldview/ben-franklin-on-nationalized-health-care/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Mar 2010 12:15:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[health care]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ideology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philosophy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World View]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=1228</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In 1778, while serving as Minister of the Continental Congress to the French government, Benjamin Franklin received an insulting anonymous letter from some British &#8220;gentlemen,&#8221; expressing contempt for the American Revolution and the scorn felt by ruling elites in all ages for the common people. His answer was interesting in the context of the current [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In 1778, while serving as Minister of the Continental Congress to the French government, Benjamin Franklin received an insulting anonymous letter from some British &#8220;gentlemen,&#8221; expressing contempt for the American Revolution and the scorn felt by ruling elites in all ages for the common people.  His answer was interesting in the context of the current debate over nationalized health care.  An excerpt:</p>
<blockquote><p>The weight, therefore, of an independent empire, which you seem certain of our inability to bear, will not be so great as you imagine; the expense of our civil government we have always borne, and can easily bear, because it is small.  A virtuous and laborious people may be cheaply governed, determining, as we do, to have no offices of profit, nor any sinecures, or useless appointments, so common in ancient or corrupted states.  We can govern ourselves a year for the sum you pay in a single department, for what one jobbing contractor, by the favour of a minister, can cheat you out of in a single article.</p></blockquote>
<p>We&#8217;ve wandered far from the vision of our Founding Fathers, haven&#8217;t we?  They valued Liberty.  Today the sine qua non is Security, not Liberty, whether for &#8220;liberals&#8221; or &#8220;conservatives.&#8221;  The left would secure Security with state power.  The right would secure it with torture, indefinite detention without trial, and the assumption that &#8220;terrorists&#8221; are guilty until proven innocent.</p>
<p><img src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/benjamin-franklin.jpg" alt="benjamin-franklin" title="benjamin-franklin" width="357" height="446" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-1229" /></p>
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		<title>Hugh Thomas&#8217; &#8220;The Spanish Civil War&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2010/01/17/history/hugh-thomas-the-spanish-civil-war/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2010/01/17/history/hugh-thomas-the-spanish-civil-war/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Jan 2010 21:07:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Communism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=1083</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I just reread Hugh Thomas&#8217; &#8220;The Spanish Civil War&#8221; after a lapse of many years. Thomas has the ability, rare in our times, to write histories peopled by human beings, rather than good guys and bad guys. In this book he portrays an event that is still well within living memory, but seems as remote [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-1084" title="Spanish War" src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Spanish-War.jpg" alt="Spanish War" width="465" height="375" />I just reread <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Thomas">Hugh Thomas&#8217; </a>&#8220;The Spanish Civil War&#8221; after a lapse of many years. Thomas has the ability, rare in our times, to write histories peopled by human beings, rather than good guys and bad guys. In this book he portrays an event that is still well within living memory, but seems as remote as the middle ages. It is well worth reading, if only to recall what human beings are capable of. It was a war marked by furious ideological passions, a version in miniature of the titanic struggle between fascism and Communism that was to follow it. Especially in the beginning, but throughout the war, both sides systematically hunted down and shot any person of talent they had any reason to believe might favor the other side. Many tens of thousands of Spain&#8217;s best and brightest were squandered in this national decapitation that is such a trademark of the 20th century, mimicking the even more devastating self-immolation that reached its peak of fury in the Soviet Union at the same time, and decades later in Cambodia. Imagine what it would be like if people in a town 20 or 30 miles from yours grabbed weapons, climbed onto trucks and drove to where you live, and then began systematically going door to door, shooting down 100&#8242;s of your neighbors for the flimsiest of reasons, including pure malice and personal revenge. That&#8217;s what it was like. We forget such events at our peril. They are still quite recent, and could easily happen again.</p>
<p>One wonders how many of the later dictators of central and South America were &#8220;inspired&#8221; by Franco and his fascists. After all, in the end, he &#8220;won,&#8221; in the sense that his will prevailed. How many of the organizers of death squads, the &#8220;revolutionaries&#8221; who murdered and still murder whole villages, and the military thugs responsible for the &#8220;disappeared ones&#8221; learned their lessons from him? It&#8217;s ironic to consider what has become of his &#8220;victory,&#8221; paid for with the blood of so many of Spain&#8217;s most talented children.  Today she is ruled by a socialist he certainly would have shot back in July or August of &#8217;36.  Franco posed as the defender of outraged Christianity.  Recently, I saw the Spanish film &#8220;Talk to Her,&#8221; in which one of the characters claims that those priests who don&#8217;t rape nuns are pedophiles.  The wheel of Nemesis rolls on.</p>
<p>There is a fine sentence in Thomas&#8217; Epilogue that epitomizes both the war and the century:</p>
<blockquote><p>The Spanish Civil War was the Spanish share in the tragic European breakdown of the twentieth century, in which the liberal heritage of the nineteenth century, and the sense of optimism which had lasted since the renaissance, were shattered.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>The Conservative Narrative of Yesteryear:  Observations of a Monday Morning Quarterback</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2009/07/22/worldview/the-conservative-narrative-of-yesteryear-observations-of-a-monday-morning-quarterback/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2009/07/22/worldview/the-conservative-narrative-of-yesteryear-observations-of-a-monday-morning-quarterback/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World View]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=573</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[History is a great reality check. Sometimes narratives unravel overnight. Sometimes they seem prophetic. 1848 was a difficult year for prophets of all stripes. In February, the turbulent French had given King Louis Philippe the hook and proclaimed a republic. Rebellion was sweeping Europe. In England, the conservative Tories were shaking in their boots, wondering [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_574" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 150px"><img src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/europe-1848.jpg" alt="Europe in 1848" title="europe-1848" width="140" height="105" class="size-full wp-image-574" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Europe in 1848</p></div>History is a great reality check.  Sometimes narratives unravel overnight.  Sometimes they seem prophetic.  1848 was a difficult year for prophets of all stripes.  In February, the turbulent French had given King Louis Philippe the hook and proclaimed a republic.  Rebellion was sweeping Europe.  In England, the conservative Tories were shaking in their boots, wondering when the revolutionary tide would sweep across the channel.  Like good conservatives in all ages, they stood firm for the preservation of the old order against the day&#8217;s &#8220;liberal&#8221; cause, nationalism.  Seen with the hindsight of a century and a half, some of their comments were amusing, some prophetic, and some downright delusional.  Here are some examples from the December 1848 issue of the British Tory &#8220;Quarterly Review,&#8221; published as revolutionary chaos was still sweeping the continent.</p>
<blockquote><p>We have already observed that the form of nationalism, which reposes on the basis of a common language, is, from the nature of that basis, aggressive in its tendencies.</p></blockquote>
<p>Not much of a stretch there.  They were referring to <em>German</em> nationalism.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8230;the supremacy of race is not the principle on which the Austrian empire has been built up, or can be maintained.</p></blockquote>
<p>The Austrian Empire collapsed into pieces determined on the basis of nationality 70 years later.  As for Italy, scene of some of the year&#8217;s most spectacular revolutionary eruptions, the editors were not sanguine about its population&#8217;s readiness for self-rule, and, like our own conservatives in the cold war, suggested that &#8220;anti-Communist&#8221; dictators were needed to save it from the forces of darkness:</p>
<blockquote><p>No men have less political sagacity than the modern Italians, and it is the singular mixture of indolence and vanity of which the national character is compounded that has ever kept them in ignorance of political science, and which, on the downfall of their absolute governments, has exposed them to the seduction of French democracy, and plunged them into excesses that disgrace the name of Cristendom&#8230; The <strong>Socialist and Communistic party </strong>(my emphasis) &#8211; in other words, the Italian &#8220;liberals&#8221; &#8211; dreaded, above all things, the quiet establishment of a limited monarchy.</p></blockquote>
<p>Referring to the murder of one of the Pope&#8217;s ministers, the staunchly Protestant editors of the Quarterly plead for the temporal government of the Pope!</p>
<blockquote><p>With him fell the temporal government of the Pope &#8211; the last hope of social order. </p></blockquote>
<p> (!)</p>
<p>On the possibility of intervention in Italy by Britain&#8217;s ally, Russia, to &#8220;restore order&#8221;:</p>
<blockquote><p>What if Russia, who has hitherto been a watchful though inactive observer of these transactions, should, under such circumstances, offer herself as an ally&#8230; to the King of Naples?  Is our Foreign Secretary prepared to advise his sovereign to unite in such an event, her fleet to that of France, and aid the spoliation of our ally?</p></blockquote>
<p>Apparently so.  Five years later the Russian ally had become the enemy in the Crimean War.  Moving on to the question of Italian unity:</p>
<blockquote><p>We are well aware of the cry for an Italy, one and <em>indivisible</em>, but that vision is older than the Treaties of Vienna themselves, and does not seem, even after all the efforts and all the successes of the Italian revolutionists, to be one jot more rational or more feasible than it originally was.</p></blockquote>
<p>In fact, a dozen years later, the final unification of Italy was all but complete, although the capital could not be moved to Rome until 1871.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8230;the great powers who guaranteed the Treaty of Westphalia (ending the 30 Years War in 1648) had thereby indirectly declared the political unity of Germany to be inconsistent with the general interests of Europe&#8230; It was thus necessary&#8230; to avoid establishing in the heart of Germany, and in the person of any one of its members (German states) a State whose power of aggression would be out of all proportion to the means of resistance which the combined action of the other States could present.</p></blockquote>
<p>That certainly would have sounded prophetic in 1940.  </p>
<blockquote><p>The fall of the throne of the Bourbons in France was, in a great degree, the penalty which they paid for having assisted the British colonists in North America, in violation of the law of nations, to emancipate themselves from the mother country.</p></blockquote>
<p>I wonder when they finally stopped bitching about it?</p>
<blockquote><p>It is to be hoped, however, that after the pursuit of German Unity shall have been abandoned, it will have served, like the pursuit of the Philosopher&#8217;s Stone, to produce indirect results of more value to the German people, than any which could have been directly achieved by the success of the experiments in the Frankfort Laboratory.</p></blockquote>
<p>German unification, like Italian unification, was a reality less than a quarter of a century later.  In retrospect, it seems they were inevitable.  Yet the writers for the Quarterly were not stupid men.  They were the best and the brightest that conservative thought had to offer in their day.  The moral of the story?  Perhaps that we are all fallible, and should not be too quick to accept popular certainties.  Reality has a bad habit of intruding and making the certainties of yesterday the mockeries of tomorrow.</p>
<p>In a later post, we will consider whether the &#8220;liberals&#8221; of 1848 fared any better.</p>
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		<title>Update:  Iran and Twitter</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2009/07/14/world-politics/update-iran-and-twitter/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2009/07/14/world-politics/update-iran-and-twitter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 21:31:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blogosphere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=536</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here&#8217;s something from Debka that adds point to my earlier reservations about Twittered revolutions. Some excerpts: Part of the reason (the Iranian demonstrations petered out) was their organizers&#8217; heavy reliance on YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, Flickr and other social sites to orchestrate their protest movement. They did not at first appreciate that Iranian intelligence Internet experts, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1396">Here&#8217;s</a> something from Debka that adds point to my earlier reservations about Twittered revolutions.  Some excerpts:</p>
<blockquote><p>Part of the reason (the Iranian demonstrations petered out) was their organizers&#8217; heavy reliance on YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, Flickr and other social sites to orchestrate their protest movement. They did not at first appreciate that Iranian intelligence Internet experts, operating from secret headquarters established months ago, were using their communications to shoot them down&#8230;</p>
<p>The high-end apparatus, installed in late 2008 by the German Siemens AG and Finnish Nokia Corp. cell phone giant, gave Iranian intelligence the most advanced tools anywhere for controlling, inspecting, censoring and altering Internet and cell phone messaging. Those tools were being used weeks before the poll to identify penetrations by alien spy services, their local agents and dissident activists&#8230;</p>
<p>Within a few days of their protest, Mir Hossein Mousavi and the bulk of his supporters, realizing their electronic campaign had been taken over by the regime to hunt them down, disappeared from the streets of Tehran. </p></blockquote>
<p>Debka is occasionally <a href="http://www.wired.com/politics/law/news/2001/10/47325">too quick </a>to credit rumors in its zeal to scoop the mainstream news organizations.  I suspect they&#8217;re right on the money this time, though.  The Internet was never designed to be secure.  It can be a great mobilizer in a democracy.  In a dictatorship, it&#8217;s more likely to be a trap.</p>
<p><img src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/iran-demonstrations-unres-003.jpg" alt="iran-demonstrations-unres-003" title="iran-demonstrations-unres-003" width="585" height="390" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-537" /></p>
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		<title>Trotsky as Cassandra:  The End of the Marxist Dream</title>
		<link>http://helian.net/blog/2009/07/05/history/trotsky-as-cassandra-the-end-of-the-marxist-dream/</link>
		<comments>http://helian.net/blog/2009/07/05/history/trotsky-as-cassandra-the-end-of-the-marxist-dream/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 17:25:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Helian</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Communism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Literature]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philosophy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russian revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South America]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://helian.net/blog/?p=453</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Trotsky was the best and brightest, and probably also the most readable, of the old Bolsheviks. He was also the Cassandra of the &#8220;Dictatorship of the Proletariat.&#8221; Here&#8217;s what he had to say about the historical fate of Communism in &#8220;In Defense of Marxism,&#8221; a collection of his letters and articles published shortly after he [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leon_Trotsky">Trotsky</a> was the best and brightest, and probably also the most readable, of the old Bolsheviks.  He was also the <a href="http://www.arthistory.sbc.edu/imageswomen/papers/fittoncassandra/intro.html">Cassandra</a> of the &#8220;<a href="http://www.economictheories.org/2009/05/dictatorship-of-proletariat-and.html">Dictatorship of the Proletariat</a>.&#8221;  Here&#8217;s what he had to say about the historical fate of Communism in &#8220;In Defense of Marxism,&#8221; a collection of his letters and articles published shortly after he was murdered by Stalin in 1940.</p>
<p>&#8220;If, however, it is conceded that the present war (WWII) will provoke not revolution but a decline of the proletariat, then there remains another alternative:  the further decay of monopoly capitalism, its further fusion with the state and the replacement of democracy wherever it still remained by a totalitarian regime.  The inability of the proletariat to take into its hands the leadership of society could actually lead under these conditions to the growth of a new exploiting class from the Bonapartist fascist bureaucracy.  This would be, according to all indications, a regime of decline, signalizing the eclipse of civilisation.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Then it would be necessary in retrospect to establish that in its fundamental traits the present USSR was the precursor of a new exploiting regime on an international scale.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;If (this) prognosis proves to be correct, then, of course, the bureaucracy will become a new exploiting class.  However onerous this perspective may be, if the world proletariat should actually prove incapable of fulfilling the mission placed upon it by the course of development, nothing else would remain except only to recognize that the socialist program, based on the internal contradictions of capitalist society, ended as a Utopia.&#8221;</p>
<p>Too bad Mao, Castro, Pol Pot, et.al., didn&#8217;t listen to him.  It would have saved us all a lot of grief.  </p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milovan_%C4%90ilas">Milovan Djilas</a>, one of the great political thinkers of the 20th century, wrote a postscript for Trotsky in his seminal work on Communism, &#8220;The New Class.&#8221;  An excerpt:</p>
<p><img src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/djilas.jpg" alt="djilas" title="djilas" width="111" height="82" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-454" /></p>
<p><img src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/the-new-class.jpg" alt="the-new-class" title="the-new-class" width="70" height="110" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-455" /></p>
<p>&#8220;The movement of the new class toward power comes as a result of the efforts of the proletariat and the poor.  These are the masses upon which the party or the new class must lean and with which its interests are most closely allied.  This is true until the new class finally establishes its power and authority.  Over and above this, the new class is interested in the proletariat and the poor only to the extent necessary for developing production and for maintaining in subjugation the most aggressive and rebellious social forces.&#8221;</p>
<p>Those who would elevate the likes of Chavez and Zelaya to the rank of great heroes of democracy should take note and think again.</p>
<p>Trotsky and Djilas are both well worth reading.  Djilas, in particular, is one of the most brilliant and under-appreciated thinkers of the last hundred years.  See, for example, in addition to &#8220;The New Class,&#8221; works such as &#8220;Land Without Justice&#8221; and &#8220;Wartime.&#8221;  You can find them on eBay, Amazon, Barnesandnoble, etc.</p>
<p><img src="http://helian.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/cassandra.jpg" alt="cassandra" title="cassandra" width="60" height="125" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-456" /></p>
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